Saturday, July 13, 2013

Will the Mets trade Marlon Byrd?

Marlon Byrd has been the biggest surprise for the Mets this season. After signing a minor league deal with the Mets over the winter, fans did not have high expectations for the 35 year old outfielder. Byrd was coming off a season where he hit a combined .210 in 47 games with the Cubs and Red Sox, and also served a 50 game PED suspension. Byrd, an All-Star with the Cubs in 2010, knew that he'd have every opportunity to rebound his career in New York since their outfield depth was extremely thin.

Coming out of spring training, Terry Collins strongly supported Marlon Byrd, and promised him every-day playing time out in right field. That move questioned many Mets fans, as they thought the team was looking to get younger. Byrd, as many of you now know, has had an excellent 2013 season, and has been one of the better hitters in the team's lineup. He's currently hitting .263 with an impressive 15 home runs and 49 RBI in 77 games. 

Since the Mets are out of contention, it is likely that they'll sell off some of their pieces later this month. It makes too much sense to trade Marlon Byrd, as he has an expiring contract, and would likely not re-sign with the Mets in the off-season. Despite that, Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi recently told Jim Duquette on SiriusXM Radio that Marlon Byrd's trade value will be very high, and moving him isn't a sure thing.

"It would have to be something serious for us to move him," Ricciardi told Duquette. 

In my mind, it would be idiotic to not move Marlon Byrd. At 35 years old, he is clearly not part of the future, even as a bench player, and it is unlikely that he'll even put up numbers like this again. After a season like this, it is also worth mentioning that Byrd will likely command a multi-year deal in free agency, and that is something the Mets may not be willing to hand out. 

Perhaps Ricciardi is saying this because he wants to drive the price up for Byrd, since he knows that there are teams out there that are desperate for outfield depth. Personally, as long as the Mets get a semi-decent prospect for Byrd, I'm fine with letting him go. 

I really hope that they are not keeping Byrd to "remain competitive." The reality is, the Mets are a 75 win team at best, and letting Byrd go would not matter at all. Just move him, give the playing time to younger guys, and hopefully get a decent player for him.

Like I said before, the outfield market will be competitive this month, and Marlon Byrd will -- eventually -- be highly coveted by other teams. One team I can see getting involved are the Rangers. Texas currently has Nelson Cruz in right field, but after the dust settles on this Biogenesis situation, Cruz could find himself suspended, and Texas could overpay for an outfielder.

Another team I could see looking at Byrd are the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' offense has always been a weakness, and they could certainly use someone like Marlon Byrd to give them outfield depth.

All things considered, Marlon Byrd will likely be dealt at this month's trading deadline. The front office can say whatever they want, but it makes too much sense to trade him. Byrd is no young, up and coming outfielder. He is a 35 turning 36 year old outfielder who is currently playing way over his head. Ship him off while his value is high. 

Friday, July 12, 2013

Young Jr.'s long-term role with the Mets

The Mets have kept an eye on Eric Young Jr. for the last few years, and when Colorado designated him for assignment last month, they saw it as an opportunity to bring him in for cheap. On June 18th, the team acquired him in exchange for pitcher Collin McHugh.

Since then, Young has hit .290 with a .368 on-base percentage in 21 games for the Mets. He has been a spark plug for this team, and his seven stolen bases have been a welcoming sight. 

"I love it here," Young told the New York Post. "It's a great bunch of guys. I see a lot of drive and fight in everybody and I think we're going to make it exciting in the second half."

Young's speed and aggressiveness has been something out of the ordinary for the Mets, who have lacked a true lead-off man since Jose Reyes two years ago. Granted, it's only been 21 games, but Young has shown Mets fans what he can provide, and it may be enough to keep him around for the long term. 

"He's the prototypical leadoff guy," teammate Marlon Byrd said of Young. " I'm just so glad we have him over here. He just never got that consistent playing time [In Colorado] and over here he's got the chance. He see's the opportunity and knows he's going to be out there every single day. He's showing what he can do."

As for Young's long-term role on the Mets, that remains to be seen. The 28 year old outfielder is out of options, so he cannot be removed from the 40 man roster without being placed on waivers. He is a free agent after the 2016 season, and at a good price of roughly $400-500k per season. 

One thing I love about Young is his aggressiveness. The Mets do not have much power in their lineup, so home runs will not be their main source of producing runs. Young is scrappy, and has an above average eye at the plate, thus making him a tough out for pitchers. He is also a switch hitter, which makes him an ideal leadoff guy for Terry Collins, who seems to love platooning his players.

The Mets do need power in their outfield, but if Young continues this production, they can forget about players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin Shoo-Choo this coming off-season, and focus more on corner outfielders. Nelson Cruz, Mike Morse, David Murphy, Corey Hart, and Hunter Pence could be considered for those corner outfield positions, as they all could be had for a relatively low price.

All in all, Young has been an excellent addition by Sandy Alderson, and hopefully he continues to shine in New York. As a cost-controlled, relatively young, speedy outfielder, Young is the ideal player for the Mets to have right now, but time will tell what his long-term role will be in New York. 

Future SS for the Mets

After Jose Reyes left via free agency after the 2011 season, Ruben Tejada was set to become his long-term replacement. Of-course, Tejada was not expected to become a player similar to Reyes, who hit .292 with 370 stolen bases in 8 seasons with New York. Tejada was supposed to a solid defender, and a work-in progress up at the plate. He showed promise in 2012, hitting .289 in 114 games with the Mets.

Coming into 2013, 23 year old Ruben Tejada was poised to keep his everyday shortstop job. He appeared to put on some muscle during the winter, and looked like he was ready to have a good season. However, he struggled offensively and defensively. In 50 games for the Mets, he hit .209 with a .267 on-base percentage. In 48 games at shortstop, Tejada has made 8 errors already, which gives him a .966 fielding percentage. Tejada injured himself in May, and only recently started playing games. After his rehab assignment, the team assigned him to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he has struggled, hitting .189 in 10 games.

I'm not ready to give up on Ruben Tejada just yet, but it is very hard to ignore what Omar Quintanilla, Tejada's replacement, has done over the last month and a half. Quintanilla was originally slated to be the team's backup middle infielder, but after the injury to Tejada, he was immediately called up to replace him. Since then, he has hit .246 in 37 games with New York. His offensive numbers do not sparkle, but defensively he has been outstanding. In 37 games at shortstop, he has made only three errors, which is good for a .980 fielding percentage. The league average fielding percentage is .976, so Quintanilla has been slightly above average.

At this point, as the Mets look to rebuild, Quintanilla is not the long-term answer at shortstop. Ruben Tejada may not be either, but at 23 years of age he has a good chance to develop into something special. I do like what the Mets are doing with Tejada right now -- letting him work his way back offensively down in Triple-A.

Quintanilla may not be a starter for this team long-term, but he has definitely earned himself a spot on the 25 man roster in 2014. I like what he brings to the table defensively, and is basically the definition of a solid backup middle infielder.

If you're looking really long term, you can take a look at someone like Wilfredo Tovar, who at 5'10" 160 lbs  and 21 years of age, may need to continue to physically grow before being considered for a promotion to the Majors. Tovar is currently hitting .240 in 85 games for Double-A Binghampton this season.

You could also look at Gavin Cecchini, who at 19 years old is in Single-A with the Brooklyn Cyclones. As a first round pick, Cecchini will clearly be watched over very closely by the organization as he works his way up the system. He is currently hitting .259 in 15 games with the Cyclones this season.

The Mets will need to answer this problem sooner or later. Quintanilla is not going to be the long-term shortstop for this team, and they will need to find out what they have in Ruben Tejada. Of-course, if Tejada does not pan out, they could look for shortstops via free agency. The 2014 free agent class doesn't feature too many top players. The only one who would represent a clear upgrade over Tejada would be Stephen Drew. The 2015 free agent class consists of much more talented players. The Mets could choose from the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, Hanley Ramirez, and J.J. Hardy. At that point, hopefully the Mets are one player or two away from contention, and the final piece to the puzzle would be adding a solid shortstop. 

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Marcum done for the season

The Mets have announced that Shaun Marcum has been diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, and he will not pitch again this season. He will have surgery on Monday. The team has recalled pitcher Gonzalez Germen from Triple-A Las Vegas. 

Marcum's issue will allow him to throw again in roughly two months, but he does indeed have contract details that give him performance bonuses if he happens to accomplish certain things, such as innings pitched and time on the roster. With that being said, the Mets will remain cautious and not push for Marcum to return, especially in a non-contending season.

Marcum originally signed a one year, $4 million deal with the Mets back over the winter. In 14 appearances (12 starts) for the Mets, he was 1-10 with a 5.29 ERA while tossing 78.1 innings. 

Admittedly, I loved the Marcum signing when it first was announced, as I thought he would be an underrated acquisition who could possibly be a solid number 3 in the team's rotation. However, the big red flag with the Marcum has always been his health, and that was a major problem for him this season. After battling several elbow and shoulder injuries, this problem emerged, and ultimately was the final nail in the coffin for Marcum. 

My wish was originally to have Marcum have a successful season and shop him at the trading deadline. However, Marcum's trade value was so minuscule all season long, and the Mets probably would have had to designate him for assignment if he continued to struggle. 

Anyway, Adios Shaun Marcum! I wish we could've gotten to see your good side because you are a great pitcher when on your A game. You also could've netted us a pretty darn good prospect too. Well, anyway what's done is done, and Marcum will be remembered as one of Sandy Alderson's worst signings. 

It's time to trade Murphy

Daniel Murphy started the 2013 season knowing that he would be the team's primary second-baseman. That was out of the ordinary for him, because in the years prior he had to battle to earn an everyday position. As a second-baseman, Murphy showed signs of improvement over the 2012 season. Murphy has always been a natural hitter, hitting a career .292 (before the 2013 season) in four seasons with New York. However, his defense has always been the question. Many wondered if he would survive as a second-baseman in this game.

Murphy got off to a hot start this season, hitting .304 in his first 52 games. However, over his last 34 games, he has hit a mere .219 with a .258 on-base percentage. His defense has been about average, which is pretty much all you can ask for in a player like Murphy. However, with his struggling bat, and it may be time to move on and try to get younger.

Personally, I'm a huge Murphy fan, and I wouldn't be ready to give up on him after one struggling season. However, the team has a stud prospect in Wilmer Flores currently waiting in Triple-A, and he seems to be Major League ready. 

Flores, a converted second-baseman, has hit .316 with 10 home runs and 68 RBI in 87 games with the Las Vegas 51s this season. He was originally signed out of Venezuela by the Mets as a 16 year old in 2008, and has kept the attention of the front office for years now. The organization has taken it's time with Flores, working him up slowly and ensuring that they do not ruin his development. The beauty of this is that he is still only 21 years old, so he'll likely develop even more.

Now that the Mets are sitting in fourth place in the NL East, it is time to play the young kids and see what they can provide at this level of the game. Daniel Murphy is not one of those young guys. I'd really like to see the Mets trade Murphy to an American League team, where he can become a designated hitter, and thrive in that role. 

Granted, Murphy's trade value is exceptionally low right now, so perhaps the team would have to package him in a deal. The team is rumored to be looking for an outfield bat, so perhaps Murphy could be used in that potential trade. 

I personally cannot wait to see Flores in a Mets uniform, but I find it interesting that the Mets have not yet called him up. Like I mentioned before, the Mets are looking for an outfield bat, and Flores' value is currently being preserved in the minor leagues, so Flores could possibly be a big trading chip for the team.



Sunday, July 7, 2013

Could the Mets trade Gee or Hefner?

Pitching depth is always in high demand around the trading deadline, and luckily for the Mets, their rotation is currently their strength. With untouchables like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler at the head of the the rotation, the Mets have a few other hurlers who could be made available at the right price. At this point Shaun Marcum, due to his struggles, would not net anything particularly good in a trade. However, Jeremy Hefner and Dillon Gee both have found success in 2013, and their respective value's are as high as they've ever been. 

Starting with Gee, here is a guy who has been in the organization since 2007, and has always been labeled as a potential back end of the rotation starter. For the last two seasons, he's had decent success at the Major League level, but never really put up sparkling numbers. In 2013, his 4.45 ERA is certainly nothing to brag about, and neither is his 10.5 H/9 ratio. However, Gee, a pitcher who relies on control and finesse, has put up a respectable 7.8 K/9 ratio, along with an impressive 2.4 BB/9 ratio. Over his last 7 starts, Gee has posted a 2.47 ERA in 47.1 innings. 

Now, Gee is a player that I'd certainly want on my team. He's young (27 years old), under team control through 2017, cheap (has made roughly $500k per season so far), and comes as advertised. Despite a freak incident with his shoulder last season, it has seemed like he has stayed off the disabled list for the most part. With that in mind, what could a team be willing to give up for him?

The Mets are in no need to part ways with Gee. There is no rush to trade him, he is not a free agent at the end of the season or requesting a trade. That said, the Mets could ask their own price, and not feel compelled to move him. 

Now, with Hefner, the Mets originally acquired him via waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates back in December of 2011. He spent the 2012 season as rotation depth, serving mostly as the team's swing-man in the bullpen. He was useful, but in 2013 he has taken it up a notch. In 17 starts (and one relief appearance), Hefner has posted a surprising 3.39 ERA in 101 innings pitched. He's been extremely valuable for the Mets this season, especially when you consider that he was being considered for a demotion earlier in the season. 

Hefner, like Gee, is 27 years old, so the age is on his side. He is also cheap, making roughly $500k (like Gee as well) in 2013. Finally, he is under team control through the 2019 season, which buying teams love to see. 

Like I said before, starting pitching is always in demand come trading season, and the Mets could at least check in and see what the market is for Gee and Hefner. If they get blown away with an offer, jump on the gun and pull the trigger. Both of these pitchers are hot right now, and we don't know if they're value will continue to rise.  

Teams that I personally can see looking for pitching this month could be the: Orioles, Red Sox, Indians, Rockies, Nationals, Padres, Giants, Rays, Rangers, and Blue Jays.

Opposing clubs will be calling, but if you were Sandy Alderson, what would you do?