Tuesday, November 5, 2013

MLBTR's Mets free agent predictions

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors recently predicted that the Mets will sign Curtis Granderson, Stephen Drew, Bronson Arroyo, and Roy Halladay to free agent deals this off-season. Here is the link to his predictions list. 

I truly feel like the Mets are going to take the "Red Sox approach" to free agency this winter and sign several players to multiyear deals, hoping that they will find a spark in them. The four players that Dierkes mentioned aren't superstars by any means, but still major upgrades over who the Mets currently have on their team.

I haven't always been the biggest Granderson fan, as I feel like most of his home runs are given to him because of the hitter-friendly dimensions at Yankee stadium. Despite the injury-riddled 2013 season, he played very well with the Yankees during his four year tenure. The 32 year old outfielder hit 115 homers, had 307 RBI, and put up a combined .245 batting average in a total of 513 games. The batting average and the strikeouts are what scare me the most about Granderson, and now that he is tied to draft pick compensation that may push the Mets even further away from him. If they can get him at a decent price, I would consider it. However, if he can only be had by getting overpaid, then I would chase after other players. 

Stephen Drew's name has been closely connected with the Mets for the last few months, and he is also tied to draft pick compensation. During the 2013 season, he hit .253 with 13 homers and 67 RBI in 124 games with Boston. His defense has always been pretty solid, but his post-season performance might have decreased his free agent value. It is expected that he'll be getting a multiyear deal, something in the 3-4 year, $35-45 million price range. I personally would rather have Johnny Peralta over Stephen Drew, because I feel like that is overpaying Drew, plus he is a bigger health risk. 

Next we have Bronson Arroyo, who has been one of the most durable pitchers in the game over the past decade or so. He had a 3.79 ERA in 202.0 innings pitched (32 starts) for the Reds in 2013. The 36 year old has thrown 200.0 innings or more in 8 of the last 9 seasons. He has also stated that he would "strongly consider" coming to the Mets. Despite the age, he is still expected to get a multiyear deal his winter, and the Reds are unlikely to bring him back. 

Roy Halladay is name that I would probably shy away from, but I get what Dierkes is saying here. He basically wants the Mets to find a low-risk gamble for a starting pitcher, and hope that he turns his career around in 2014. That could be Roy Halladay, or even Josh Johnson for all we know, but the Mets do need more rotation depth. I would just stay away from Halladay because it seems like his career is over, as he has digressed quite quickly.

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