Mets miss out on Melky, signs with Blue Jays

Multiple reports have come out and said that the Blue Jays have signed outfielder Melky Cabrera to a two year, $16 million contract. Cabrera had a career year in 2012, hitting .346 in 501 plate appearances, but was unfortunately convicted of performance-enhancing drug use, and served a 50 game suspension that finished his 2012 campaign.

I really wanted to see the Mets go after Melky Cabrera, but not at that price. Obviously the Mets are low on cash (understatement of the year) and handing out $16 million to a player like Melky would be a risk. Toronto does not know which Cabrera they are getting --the one who could barely hit with Atlanta or the one who overachieved in San Francisco. I think it is agreeable among most Met fans that staying away from him was the right move. I now expect the Mets to go after a Scott Hairston-type player--someone who is cheaper. 

What would it take to acquire Alex Gordon from KC?

The Mets clearly need help in the outfield, and have supposedly been looking at a few players to add, mostly via trade. Luckily for the Metropolitan's, there are quite a bit of outfielders out there that fall into the team's price range. One of those players is Alex Gordon, a former first round pick of the Royals who has recently started to live up his hype.

Gordon hit .294 with 51 doubles (Lead the AL in doubles) and 72 RBI in 721 plate appearances for Kansas City in 2012. That right there tells me that he is a doubles machine, and can stay on the field. 721 plate appearances in one season is impressive, but I know that he had some trouble staying healthy a few years ago. Anyway, why would the Royals trade such a player? Well, first of all, they need pitching. Even after acquiring Ervin Santana, Kansas City is looking to upgrade its rotation to become competitive again in the AL Central. The Royals have a young outfielder named Wil Myers who could waiting under the wings of Gordon, so replacing him shouldn't be an issue. 

I believe that the Royals would also be willing to part with him because of his contract. Obviously Kansas City is a small market team, and Gordon is due for a steady pay raise within the next few seasons. He'll earn $9 million in 2013, $10 million in 2014, and $12.5 million. I don't know how thrilled the Royals would be if they had to pay Gordon that kind of money, especially if they need to upgrade their roster elsewhere.

Now, here is where the Mets come in. John Harper of the Daily News has said that a Mets official doesn't believe the Mets would do a Niese-Gordon swap. Niese is a young lefty that is under team control for the next four years or so, so that is understandable. I believe that the Royals would have to throw in a player like Salvador Perez, who recently signed a cheap contract extension to stay in Kansas City long-term. Perez has some pop to his bat, and would be a clear cut upgrade over Josh Thole and/or Mike Nickeas. Now I don't think the Royals would be happy about doing that, so the Mets would probably have to throw-in another player. If you include a Brad Holt or Cory Mazzoni-type pitcher, I think that you have a deal.

The Royals would be getting Niese, who has the potential to be a solid #2 or 3 starter, and they would be getting Mazzoni or Holt, who have decent upside but would most likely be #4 starters at best. The Mets would be getting Gordon--an above average outfielder that is under team control, and Perez--who is a young catcher with very nice upside. It's a win-win for both clubs. 

Would you unload the farm system to acquire Stanton?

The Marlins are nearing the end of their most recent fire sale, but still have a few players to trade. The club doesn't have a cent committed to the 2014 payroll, which is unbelievable if you really think about it. The team is currently looking to trade Ricky Nolasco and Logan Morrison, and I would assume that they will be done with their fire sale after that. However, after the unofficial announcement of that blockbuster trade, outfielder Giancarlo Stanton tweeted something that expressed his displeasure of being a Marlin. I mean, who wouldn't right? Anyway, if he is unhappy about the whole situation, he could actually be dealt as well. The Marlins have clearly stated that they intend to hold onto him, but I think that if the right package comes rolling along they'll jump on it. 

With that in mind I don't expect the Mets to be involved in his sweepstakes, but it is sure fun to dream isn't it? Let's play a fun game here and pretend that we actually had a GM that was aggressive and would make these type of moves. Now, let's come up with a few trade scenarios that would bring Stanton to Queens. Obviously you have to start a package around Wheeler or Harvey-most likely Wheeler. Then you throw in a player like Wilmer Flores, who is probably not going to be used in the future unless Wright is traded. I doubt that the Marlins would bite on that (pun intended), so then you add a guy like Jeurys Familia, whose wildness may concern Miami, so one more player would probably be needed. You would probably have to throw in Lucas Duda-type player, and then I think the Marlins would consider it. So, Wheeler, Familia, Duda, and Flores for Stanton. Seems like a good deal for both sides.

False. I know the idea of acquiring Stanton is extremely tempting, but I wouldn't unload my precious farm system for one guy, even if that one guy is very young with incredible raw power. You cannot build your team around a single player, so with that in mind I wouldn't do the trade. I would give it a heavy consideration, but would ultimately reject it. 

Now, you are probably saying, what is the point of this article? My point here is, don't trade for Stanton, because you are going to have to massively overpay to get him. I don't think that Alderson is going to make any attempt to even ASK about his availability  so I think that our farm system is safe for now. 

R.A. Dickey wins 2013 NL Cy Young Award

Last night, the MLB announced that Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey won the National League Cy Young award by a landslide. He beat out Clayton Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez for the award, and will join Tom Seaver and Doc Gooden as the only Mets player to win it. 

In 2012, Dickey became a 20-game winner, and struck out 230 batters in 233.2 innings. He posted a 2.73 ERA while leading the major leagues in quality starts with 27. He is the first knuckle-baller to win the award.

It is very odd to think that over two years ago Dickey was walking into the Mets' spring training complex on a minor league deal, with virtually no chance to make the team. Jerry Manuel actually cut him with the first chance he got, and Dickey was sent to the minors. However, he really opened some eyes a few years ago after throwing a one-hitter down there, and the Mets called him up.

Dickey put it all together in 2012, having a fantastic season that won't be forgotten. However, he was actually pretty solid in 2010 and 2011, so it is not like he is a one year wonder or anything. He definitely deserves this award, even though there is some speculation that Clayton Kershaw was more deserving. That is all mush in my mind, because not only does Dickey have a better story, he also has better stats pretty much all around.

I am very curious to see what this does to his trade value. Obviously trading a Cy Young award winner should net quite a return of players, but perhaps not with a  37 year old knuckle-baller. I expect a bunch of teams to come knocking at the door, and Alderson should definitely hear in to see what they are willing to offer.

Reaction to Block-buster trade between Marlins-Blue Jays

The Marlins and Blue Jays agreed to a huge blockbuster trade last night that will send Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto in exchange for Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis and Anthony DeSclafani. Miami will also send $4 million to Toronto. This move comes one year after the Marlins spent big money to keep their team relevant in 2012, but that did not happen. 

You know I realize that this is a blog based on the Mets, but this is actually a huge deal for them, even though they are not directly involved. Obviously the Marlins are looking like they are going to be a 100+ loss club next season, so that should generate into a few "easier" wins for the Mets. Yet again the Mets, like most teams, are very unpredictable, so perhaps it is too early to make that assumption. 

Anyway I'll give my analysis for both sides, even though the clear cut winner is Toronto.

Reaction from a Blue Jays perspective

The Blue Jays finally get the pitching that they have been searching for. Josh Johnson may have a tough time pitching in the AL East, and staying healthy for that matter, but is a great player to buy low on. Mark Buerhle is a consistent #4 starter who can eat up innings and provide rotation depth. Reyes is a clear upgrade over Escobar, and he should/will be leading off games for Toronto for a long, long time. Remember these guys, notably Reyes and Buerhle, are under contract for a long time, so this is a huge financial commitment for Toronto. Also, Buck will probably not get much playing time since J.P. Arencibia and Travis D'Arnuad are likely going to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Perhaps this means that Buck, or even someone else could get traded. If I were Sandy Alderson I would definitely inquire. Finally, Bonifacio is an interesting pickup because he is sort of a super-utility guy with above-average speed. If he gets the everyday left field job with Toronto, expect him to put up very impressive numbers.

Reaction from the Marlins perspective

It is going to be a long rebuild for Miami, considering that they really don't have anyone good on the team right now, with the exception to Giancarlo Stanton. If I had to pick a positive thing from this trade from Miami's perspective, it is that they now have quite a bit of payroll flexibility  but after last year's debacle, I don't know how willing they will be to spend it. Escobar is a decent option at shortstop, but I think he'll ultimately be flipped to a team like Oakland. Hechavarria is a nice infield prospect to have, and should have a future with the team. Alvarez had a nice rookie season and I thought he was going to be something special, however, he had a rough 2012 season and really showed his weak areas. He has the ability to be a good starter, and we'll see if he develops with the Marlins. Nicolino had a very strong season in Single-A, but is still a few years away from the majors. Marisnick is a good outfield prospect with power and speed. He was rated #67 on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list before the 2012 season started. Mathis is a good defensive catcher, and cannot hit at all. He will probably platoon with young backstop Rob Brantly, who is most likely going to be the team's catcher of the future. Anthony DeSclafani had a very nice season in Single-A, posting a 3.37 ERA in 28 games, 21 of which were starts. 

In conclusion, expect the Marlins to be VERY, VERY bad next season. I'm sorry Marlins fans, but it is true. I actually feel sorry for Mike Redmond, who was recently hired to be the team's manager. He has one heck of a job ahead of him, and it would be absurd to blame him if/when the team struggles.

The Mets should not pursue Cody Ross this winter

The Mets have made it clear that they will look for outfield help this off-season, and will probably make more trades than free agent signings. However, there are a few players out there, Cody Ross to name one, that some believe would be a good fit in New York. The Mets have been connected to Ross for the last few years, dating back to when he was in a Florida Marlins uniform. He will generate quite a bit of interest this winter, and I expect that he will be massively overpaid.

Ross hit .267 with 22 home runs and 81 RBI last season with Boston, and expressed interest in returning to the Red Sox. However, the Red Sox are not likely going to be any good next year, and after last season's clubhouse debacle, Ross may change his mind and want out of Boston. I expect the Red Sox, as well as team's like the Orioles, Yankees, Braves and Phillies to make a push for him. Those team's have the financial flexibility to overpay for Ross, because it is ultimately going to come down to that-who can offer to most money?

According to reports, Ross is going to seek a three year deal, worth between $21-25 million. That means he is asking for an approximate $7-9 million annual salary, which doesn't surprise me at all. Ross is a type of player that I would want on my team, but not for that price. He has some pop to his bat and is clutch in the playoffs, but is not worth $7-9 million, especially if a team, like the Mets, have financial constraints. That is really the big issue I have with going after Ross, because he is a pretty darn good player but unfortunately will be out of the Mets' price range. 

So, the real reason I don't want the Mets to go after him is because I feel like they need help in different areas, such as the bullpen or catcher. I just don't see the point of paying your entire payroll cap space on one player, because paying a bunch of smaller-reclamation project like players for a cheaper price just seems like the right thing to do. They did that last year, with Francisco, Rauch, and others, and I think that we should do that again this season. Does any Met fan want to hear that? Not at all, but giving big contracts to these guys just is unnecessary  especially if your team is not ready to contend. 

Red Sox sign David Ross, Could Salty or Lavarnway be heading to New York?

The Red Sox recently signed longtime backup catcher David Ross to a two year contract, and the club now has three catchers. Ross is obviously a lock to be on the roster next season, and the starting job will be between Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ryan Lavarnway. I have a feeling that Lavarnway is going to win the job, because the organization thinks very highly of him, and Salty could be packing his bags. Therefore I think that the Mets should/will inquire on him, because he is certainly an improvement over Josh Thole (Honestly, who isn't?) 

Obviously Saltalamacchia seems like more of a realistic target, but the Mets could find a way to acquire Lavarnway instead if they include a few higher-ended players. I'm talking about possibly R.A. Dickey, David Wright, or even someone like Jon Niese. Dickey would appeal to Boston because they are looking to re-shape their rotation after completing blowing it up last season. Dickey would slide in as the team's ace, and would have success with them. Obviously Lavarnway-Dickey straight up makes no sense for the Mets, so if Boston were to throw in another 1-2 top tier-ed prospects to sweeten the deal, I'd do it in a heartbeat. As for Wright, it is unlikely that he is going to be dealt, but he could interest the Red Sox. Boston thinks highly on Will Middlebrooks, so much so that they dealt longtime third baseman Kevin Youkilis to the White Sox to allow Middlebrooks to get the everyday job. If the Mets were to give up Wright, I'd ask for Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Daniel Bard and at least one more prospect. Finally, we have Jon Niese, whose value is not as high as the other two players I mentioned, but will appeal to Boston, or any other team, nonetheless. He is a young, controllable left handed pitcher coming off a strong season where he stayed healthy for the first time in his brief career. His value is high, and the Mets could deal him for Lavarnway straight up. I think that it is an unlikely trade scenario, but it does make sense from both standpoints.

Now, let's assume Lavarnway wins the starting catcher's job in the Spring, and that leaves Saltalamacchia  who I will refer to as Salty, settling for a third string catcher's job, which will not happen. Salty sort of came into his own in 2012, but needs to raise his batting average up and cut down the strikeouts. I'd take a gamble on him, considering that he is a switch hitting catcher with promise, youth, and power. I honestly don't think that it would take THAT MUCH to get him- maybe a middle tiered prospect and a lower tiered prospect. If the price is right, I'd definitely go out an roll the dice on him.

The Red Sox will most likely not carry three catchers on their squad in 2013, so either Salty or Lavarnway will most likely be available. Boston has neglected to trade Lavarnway at the deadline over the past few years, so it is obvious that they have a plan with him. Salty, on the other hand, could be on his way out of Boston despite having his best season (which was ALRIGHT) since his career started in 2007. The Mets should take a look at both of these guys, and I think that they certainly will. Upgrading the catcher's position is one thing, but sticking a young, controllable power hitting catcher there is even more vital if the club wants to have success within the next couple of years.