Looking at the 2012 Starting Rotation

The Mets have many needs to address this off-season, and the rotation is a big one. The team has a  weak offense, meaning that they will need to bring in key pitcher's that will keep them in tight games. The rotation will get even worse if they trade away R.A. Dickey and/or Jon Niese, but let's just assume that they are staying put. Now, what would the rotation look like?

1. R.A. Dickey

Dickey is the obvious ace of the staff, now that he is the recipient of the 2012 National League Cy Young award. The guy is one of the most consistent pitcher's out there, and is a lock for a rotation spot in 2013. Hopefully the Mets don't trade him, because his production will be hard to replace.

2. Johan Santana

Santana had a up and down 2012 season, but proved to us that his shoulder was ready again. After his no-hitter against the Cardinals in the summer, his season went downhill, and he was eventually lost for the season with an injury. The only REAL reason he will be in the rotation next year is because of his huge 2013 annual salary, which is over $25+ million. 

3. Jon Niese

Niese had his true breakout season in 2012, and proved that he could last the entire season, despite some previous problems with his stamina. If he doesn't get traded, he'll be an exciting player to watch in 2013 because I feel like he can still develop. 

4. Matt Harvey

Harvey had a great stint with the Mets last year, and really showed off his arsenal of pitches. He'll most likely make the rotation once Spring Training ends, and I can see him moving up in it if others struggle. It'll be very exciting to see how well he does in a full season.

5. Dillon Gee

Gee had a good 2011 season, but struggled in 2012, and was eventually lost for the season after a freak injury. He is a crafty pitcher who won't strike out too many batters -- typically what you see in a #5 starter. I don't he is a lock for a rotation spot next season, so the #5 spot is sort of up for grabs.

Rotation depth

Jeremy Hefner- Hefner had his ups and down's in 2012, and proved that he could serve as the long-man in the bullpen. He is an innings-eater who will have an occasional good start, but I don't think he is anything more than that. 

Collin McHugh- McHugh got off to a good start to the big leagues last September, but it seemed like some hitters figured him out, therefore ending his season on a low note. He is sort of like Dillon Gee -- a crafty pitcher who relies on his off-speed pitches. 

Zack Wheeler- Wheeler is most likely not going to make the team out of Spring Training, but you can certainly expect to see him sometime during the 2013 season. He is almost ready for the big leagues, and will hopefully develop into the ace that everyone is making him out to be. 

Mike Pelfrey- Pelfrey will probably be re-signed by the Mets on a one year deal based on incentives. We don't know how he'll come back from Tommy John surgery, and where his mental state is, so I wouldn't expect him to make the rotation out of Spring Training.

Jenrry Mejia- The Mets have been trying to decide what they would do with Mejia for a few years now, and after a few spot starts last September, I think he should stick to a bullpen role for now. However, he could probably used for a spot start if needed. 

Small free agent signings to consider

The Mets obviously don't have too much payroll flexibility this off-season, so it is safe to expect quite a bit of small, inexpensive signings by GM Sandy Alderson. So, don't expect the team to go out and spend the big bucks on a Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke. Even though the Mets are not going to be big players in the free agent market, they could sign a few cheaper options who, if they perform well, can be dealt at the deadline for prospects. 

Re-sign Kelly Shoppach

Kelly Shoppach played well in his brief time with the Mets, and is capable of hitting 20+ HR's per season, making him a good platoon partner with Josh Thole. I don't know if he'd be willing to re-sign with the Mets, but if they overpaid for him slightly I think he would come back. A one year deal should be fine, and if plays well and the Mets are out of contention, then flip him at the deadline. The catching market is weak and he would definitely interest other teams.

Sign Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Theriot, or Kelly Johnson

The Mets should consider trading Daniel Murphy for some bullpen depth, and signing a veteran second baseman. Keppinger can play multiple positions, and is very underrated. Theriot's versatility is also very useful, but his speed and post-season experience is really what would help the Mets the most. Johnson would cost more money than the other two, but his value is extremely low right now and the Mets could buy low on him. He has some pop to his bat, and is a name to consider.

Re-sign Scott Hairston

Some people want Hairston back, some people don't. I think he would be a very valuable bench piece to have in 2013, but I wouldn't expect another 20+ home run season. He may require a two year deal, but Alderson should still try to make a push to bring him back.

Sign Ryan Raburn, or Reed Johnson

The Tigers recently released Raburn, whose value is dead at the moment. He couldn't find his swing in 2012, and became expendable when Detroit signed Torii Hunter. I believe that he is a great buy low candidate because he can multiple positions, and has some pop to his bat. Johnson, on the other hand, had a good 2012 season with Chicago and Atlanta, and would cost more than Raburn. He can play all three outfield positions, and is an ideal bench piece to have. 

2012 Season In-Review: Ike Davis

Ike Davis entered the 2012 season with several health issues that made us fans doubt whether he would finally live up to expectations. First, it was the apparent ankle injury that wiped out most of his 2011 campaign. He elected to NOT undergo surgery, because it was apparently not required. So, as if that was not bad enough, he was diagnosed with Valley Fever syndrome in the Spring. The last player to have that disease was Conor Jackson, whose career got completely derailed while battling it. Many worried about Davis' stamina, and long-term health. Despite the positive tests, Ike never complained about any symptoms of the disease, so that gave the team some hope that it was possibly a false-positive-like situation. 

Ike got off to a very rough start to the season, but Terry Collins kept him in the lineup nevertheless. His batting average was below the Mendoza Line, and there was some talk about sending him to the minor leagues. The talk never really surfaced into anything major, and the management believed that Ike would just find his way out of the slump eventually. In July he started to find his power stroke, hitting 9 home runs in the month but with a mere .221 batting average. In August he really "broke-out", in a sense, because his batting average was higher (.287 in 100 plate appearances) and he had 5 long balls. He finished the season strong, and gave the Mets confidence that he is a trustworthy player over at first base. 

As for the future of Davis, he appears to be a lock at first base, despite several rumors that expressed the Mets' apparent interest in trading him. Getting rid of him would be idiotic, especially if he were to be replaced by a ding-dong like Lucas Duda. You just cannot get rid of 30+ homers in your lineup. 

I think the Mets should explore a possible contract extension with the big man soon. He will be arbitration eligible this winter, so he will earn a reasonable salary but nothing too earth-shattering. He could possibly earn a Jon Niese-like extension -- $25 million or so. I think that is a good price tag for him right now, but I can see him having a strong 2013 season and asking for the big bucks, which is good and bad for the Metsies. 

Mets add players to roster to prepare for Rule 5 draft, Did they miss anyone?

The Mets have added six players to their 40 man roster, meaning that they will not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Those players are Zack Wheeler, Hansel Robles, Gonzalez Germen, Greg Burke, Darin Gorski, and Wilfredo Tovar. 

Putting these prospects on the roster now ensures that they will not be selected in the Rule 5 draft, and leaves the roster at 39, meaning that the Mets could afford to select a player in the draft. Wheeler was an obvious player to add to the roster, considering that he is one of the best prospects, if not the best, prospect in the system. Robles spent the entire season in Single-A, posting a 1.11 ERA in 12 starts, so the club obviously thinks very highly of him as well. I don't see what the big deal is about Germen. He has been a sub-par starter for his entire minor league career and will probably develop into a decent #4 or #5 pitcher at best. Burke was recently signed on a minor league deal, and it is surprising to see him on the roster. His minor league stats are okay, but since the Mets have such a lack of bullpen depth, I suppose he'll find some playing time that will help prove that he is ready for the major leagues. Gorski had a career year in 2011, posting a 2.08 ERA in 27 Single-A appearances (21 of which were starts.) However, he didn't have as much success in 2012 as a Double-A starter, and at age 25, his chance of making the major leagues could be thinning out. Tovar has been a coveted prospect by the Mets' organization for quite a bit of time now, and we are all waiting for him to have a breakout season. His upside is keeping him on the roster, not his minor league stats. 

Keeping players off the 40 man roster during the Rule 5 draft is a risky move, and it sometimes ends up being very costly. Notable Rule 5 picks in baseball consist of Joakim Soria, Dan Uggla, and even Roberto Clemente. I am very surprised that the Mets left off Aderlin Rodriguez, whose upside and improvement in 2012 definitely opened some eyes. He'll probably get claimed, because he is still extremely young and could be ready within the next two years or so. 

Overall it will be interesting to see what the Mets do in the Rule 5 draft. Two seasons ago, they picked up Pedro Beato, who was a so-so addition in the bullpen. He was eventually shipped to Boston in the Shoppach deal a few months ago. I recall the Mets selecting a young second baseman named Brad Emaus as well. That certainly didn't pan out, so hopefully Alderson isn't over-ally active in the draft, and I have a hunch that he is going to claim one player and call it a day. 

Mets sign three scrubs, but is anyone surprised?

Today the Mets announced that they have signed three players to minor league contracts with invite's to Spring Training. Those players are pitchers Carlos Torres, Scott Rice, and outfielder Jaime Hoffmann. 

Torres had a brief stint with Colorado last season, posting a 5.26 ERA in 31 appearances. Rice, is a career minor leaguer, and hasn't even sniffed the major leagues. The former first round pick posted a 4.40 ERA in 54 appearances with the Dodgers' Triple-A affiliate in 2012. Hoffmann hit .254 with 11 homers in 110 games with the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate in 2012.

The Mets continue to feed at the bottom of the free agent market. Obviously depth signings are needed for next season, but Alderson better focus on bringing in more talent to Queens in 2013, even though it may be a rebuilding year. Upgrade the bench, bring in some bullpen pitchers, DO SOMETHING. Alderson is too busy sitting in the corner of his office and sucking his thumb. 

On the serious note, I don't expect any of these players to make any serious contributions in 2013. They will probably be seen in Triple-A, and may make a stint or two with the club next season, but they do not have any track record whatsoever that can tell me they are half-way decent players. Torres is a long-relief man, and Rice is a joke. Plain and simple. How can a former first round pick become a career minor leaguer? As for Hoffmann, his stats in the minor leagues are ALRIGHT, so he could find his way to the team's bench in 2013, if he's lucky.

Trade Proposal: J.P. Arencibia and Anthony Gose: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have made drastic changes to their roster over the past week or so, but they are most likely going to continue to make more deals as the club has several needs that have yet to be addressed, most notably starting pitcher and a second-baseman. The Mets are a perfect trading partner with Toronto because they have pieces that could interest them. So, in my latest trade proposal article, I will explain how I think the Mets could bring some cheap, young talent to Queens.

Mets acquire

Catcher J.P. Arencibia

Outfielder Anthony Gose

Blue Jays acquire

Starting pitcher Jon Niese

Second-baseman Daniel Murphy

The Mets would be getting Arencibia, who would be a perfect platoon partner with Josh Thole (and could even emerge as the starting backstop come Spring Training.) He has raw power but unfortunately maintains a low batting average due to his high strikeout rate. However, I feel like he is worth the gamble, because he has the potential to hit 30+ home runs per season, and would be a great addition to a struggling Mets lineup. The team would also be getting Anthony Gose, who is a young center-field prospect with loads of potential. He is known for his defense and speed, but is definitely capable of knocking a few balls over the wall as well. He had a brief stint with the Jays in 2012 once Jose Bautista hit the disabled list, and looked somewhat over-matched, so perhaps some more development in the minor leagues is needed. 

The Blue Jays would be getting quite a bit of value considering that they would be trading away players that they wouldn't need anyway. Niese is a young, controllable, left handed pitcher who would fit perfectly in that starting rotation. I would expect Toronto to cover the full contract, considering that they have the money to do so. The Blue Jays would definitely like to have Murphy because he is a natural hitter, and it appears that the club is not re-signing Kelly Johnson, therefore creating a big void at second base. Murphy is a defensive liability, and belongs in the American League because of his above-average hitting abilities.

As you can see, the trade is pretty well balanced, and certainly reasonable. The Mets should make a strong push for Arencibia this winter because his raw power is a rare find in today's game. Losing Niese in a trade would be a tough pill to swallow, but with Wheeler and Harvey ready/almost ready for the big leagues, trading Niese would not greatly impact the rotation--assuming that the duo pan out as expected. But hey, you gotta give up something to get something, right?