Stay away from Kemp and Ethier

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Dodgers will make outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp available in trade this off-season. 

The Dodgers currently have an excess of outfield depth, with Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, and solid bench players such as Scott Van Slyke and Skip Schumaker. 

Kemp has had trouble staying on the field ever since his solid 2011 season where he finished second in the MVP voting. He has played in 179 games over the past two seasons, hitting .290 with 29 homers and 102 RBI in 739 plate appearances. The two-time All-Star is under contract through the 2019 season, and is still set to earn $128 million. 

He had shoulder surgery in early October, but is expected to be 100 percent by Spring Training. He has also been dealing with possible career threatening problems in his ankle, which doctors expect to continue to get worse. 

Ethier has been swarmed by trade rumors over the past year or so, as he is the most logical player for the Dodgers to get rid of. For the most part, he has been able to stay on the field. In 2013, he hit .272 with 12 homers and 52 RBI in 142 games for Los Angeles. As an 8 year veteran, he has 141 career home runs, along with 587 RBI, and a .288 batting average. The two-time All-Star will earn $71.5 million over the next four seasons.

Both players should NOT be looked at by the Mets this winter. Kemp has had so much trouble staying healthy over the past 2 seasons, and despite being a solid player when on the field, I just don't feel like it's a smart investment to bring him in. The Dodgers will still try to ask for a decent package of prospects for him, so the Mets should not even think about getting him.

As for Ethier, he may make a little more sense, if the Dodgers pay for most of his contract. I've never been a huge Ethier fan, so I definitely wouldn't overpay in terms of prospects. However, if the Dodgers are desperately trying to unload him and are willing to pay, let's say 80-85 percent of his contract, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets land him. However, he would not be my first option, rather a backup player to look at if the bigger names like Shin-Shoo Choo and Nelson Cruz are scooped up. 

Could Grant Balfour be an option?

Pitcher Grant Balfour recently told Casey Pratt of Comcast SportsNet that he is unsure whether he will return to Oakland next season. Balfour also said that he'd like to win a World Series before considering retirement. 

The 10 year veteran had a 2.59 ERA in 65 relief appearances with the Athletics in 2013. He also racked up 38 saves, and posted a strong 10.3 K/9 rate in 62 2/3 innings. He is eligible for free agency when this season is over. 

Balfour has been pretty consistent over the last 4 seasons, posting a combined 2.47 ERA in 259 appearances with Oakland and Tampa Bay. He earned $4.5 million in 2013, and will likely earn a salary raise after his strong 2013 campaign.

He also has a track record of staying healthy, so even at age 35, the Mets could afford to give him a multiyear deal. I feel like he'd be a good fit with this team, but I'm not sure if he'll be the team's closer. Despite notching 38 saves for Oakland in 2013, if the club is looking long-term in 2014, I'd much rather have Bobby Parnell close out the games, and give Balfour the 8th inning duty. 

Now, I don't think the Mets will be spending a great deal of money to get bullpen help, but giving Balfour, let's say a 2 year/$10 million deal, wouldn't be a bad move. The Mets did do something similar with Frank Francisco a few years ago, giving him a 2 year/$12 million deal which ultimately turned into a big flop, but Balfour's history of success should give him an edge. 

Prospect Spotlight: Rafael Montero

Name: Rafael Montero

Age: 22

Height: 6'0"

Weight: 170 lbs

Drafted: Signed w/Mets in January 2011 as an international free agent

Acquired: Free agent

Throws: Right

Bats: Right

Estimated MLB debut: early-2014

Where does he currently stand in the minor leagues:

Montero made a huge leap through the organization in 2013, passing through Double-A and finishing up the season in Triple-A. With Double-A Binghamton, he had a 2.43 ERA in 11 starts, with a strong 9.7 K/9 ratio. Upon being promoted to the 51s, he continued his success, posting a 3.05 ERA in 16 starts. For a player that finished the 2012 season in A-ball, Montero made a name for himself last season, and is Major League ready.

What does he project to be:

He projects to be a solid number 3 pitcher, who is capable of striking out his fair share of opposing hitters. His small frame has made many wonder whether he'd be a better fit in the bullpen, but I personally believe he's able to handle the workload of going out there every fifth day, and delivering solid outings. 

Does he have a long-term role on the Mets?

This is the million dollar question. If the Mets want to acquire a few solid hitters this winter, they'll need to dangle Montero as well as other pitchers. If Montero does not get dealt this off-season, I can see him making the team out of camp in the spring. I understand that Alderson most likely does not want to put pressure on his young pitchers, but Montero is clearly Major-League ready, and with Matt Harvey being out the Mets will need someone who can fill those innings. 

Conclusion

Rafael Montero made a huge jump from Single-A to being Major-League ready in about a year. At 22 years old, he looks like he could be a keeper, but the old saying is "you gotta give a little, to get a little" and I know that Montero will be discussed in trade talks this winter. If they don't trade him away, I would be thrilled, because he looks like he can be a solid player in this game for a long time. 

Options for the Mets at shortstop

Shortstop was a major problem for the Mets in 2013, with Ruben Tejada injuring himself early on in the season, and backup Omar Quintanilla proving that he isn't anything more than a bench player. Besides first base, shortstop will likely be the biggest position to upgrade on for Sandy Alderson, and based on his recent comments about Tejada's work ethic, it sounds like he'll be acquiring an outside player sometime this winter. 

The players he should be interested in include: 

Starlin Castro --- Chicago Cubs /.245/.284/.347/ 10 HR/ 161 games.

Starlin Castro was considered a budding star in the league only a few years ago, but a rough 2013 season really diminished his value. He is still only 23 years old, and the Cubs will most likely be looking at a package of pitching prospects for him. I would easily give up someone like Rafael Montero and others to bring Castro to Queens. He is under a team friendly deal, and despite being known as a possible head case, he would be a huge upgrade over Tejada and Quintanilla, and when he's at his best he is arguably a top 5 shortstop in the game. Also, it is worth mentioning that he's on the market because the Cubs have a nice prospect by the name of Javier Baez who is the real deal, and almost major league ready. 

JJ Hardy --- Baltimore Orioles / .263/.306/.433/ 25 HR/ 159 games.

Hardy may be a backup option, but a good option nonetheless. I've always liked his power stroke, especially for a shortstop, and he is under a team friendly deal as well. If the Mets are looking for a shortstop with power, Hardy is one of the guys they should be looking at. The Orioles would probably give him up for some rotation help, which is exactly what the Mets have to offer.

Elvis Andrus --- Texas Rangers /.271/.328/.331/ 4 HR/ 156 games.

A few months ago, I supported the idea of bringing in Andrus because I liked his speed and defense. However, at this point, having looked at his contract details, I don't know if he would be the right option for the Mets. Texas will definitely be shopping him this winter with the emergence of top prospect Jurickson Profar, and the Mets may show interest, but I think the Mets could do better than him. 

Erick Aybar --- Los Angeles Angels /.271/.301/.382/ 6 HR/ 138 games.

Aybar has been relatively consistent throughout his 8 year career, and would give the Mets solid defense and decent speed. He would be a good leadoff hitter for the team, as he's a switch hitter. The Angels are reportedly going to trade Aybar and/or Howie Kendrick this winter, so he'll definitely be made available. Like the other teams on this list, the Angels are looking for pitching, so perhaps the Mets could dangle some of their lower-tiered pitching prospects to get Aybar.

Troy Tulowitzki --- Colorado Rockies /.312/.391/.540/ 25 HR/ 126 games.

Tulowitzki would be the ultimate pickup for the Mets this winter. I can understand why most people would be reluctant to acquire him, due to his health history and huge contract. However, I would imagine that Colorado would try to unload his contract this winter, and probably kick in some money, perhaps even half, to make a deal happen. Colorado needs major league ready players, so the Mets could offer a package around Rafael Montero, Daniel Murphy, and Dillon Gee. Not many shortstops are capable of hitting over 30 homers in a season while playing outstanding defense, so the Mets should certainly consider him.

Stephen Drew --- Boston Red Sox /.253/.333/.433/ 13 HR/ 124 games.

I've never been a huge Drew fan because of his injury problems, but if he stays healthy he could be a solid upgrade for New York. He has a history of being a great hitter, but hasn't shown that success over the last few seasons. I highly doubt the Red Sox will bring him back, since they have top prospect Xander Bogaraets ready to be called up next season. Drew can probably be had at a reasonable price, and I personally think he'll end up being the one the Mets choose to sign.

Johnny Peralta --- Detroit Tigers /.303/.358/.457/ 11 HR/ 107 games.

Peralta got himself into some big trouble when he was announced in the Biogenesis reports earlier in the season. He played really well up until his suspension, and I feel like he still has something left to offer. He doesn't have much of a power stroke anymore, and I wouldn't say his defense is anything above average, but I would gladly sign him to a one year deal and see if he can rebound himself. The problem is, I don't know if he'll settle for a one year deal, and I would imagine that other teams out there would be willing to give him a multiyear commitment. I do know one thing for sure though: the Tigers will NOT be resigning him, since they acquired young star-in-the-making Jose Iglesias. 

7 Mets to participate in AFL that starts tonight

The Arizona Fall League will begin tonight, and 7 Mets players will be playing in it. Those players are: Jeurys Familia, Chasen Bradford, Hansel Robles, Cory Satterwhite, Cam Maron, Aderlin Rodriguez, and Cory Vaughn. They will all play for the Scottsdale Scorpions, joining prospects from the Braves, Giants, Pirates, and Yankees. 

Jeurys Familia---  Mets/4.22 ERA/9 appearances/10.2 innings pitched

Familia missed the majority of the season with an elbow injury, and will look to prove himself in the Fall league. As a former top prospect, the 24 year old hurler's value is low, and the Mets will look to raise that value to use him as a bargaining chip this winter. If they do hold onto him, he could be a solid bullpen piece in 2014. 

Chasen Bradford--- Double-A Binghamton/0.71 ERA/20 appearances/25.1 innings pitched

As a 35th round draft choice, the Mets didn't have much of a plan with Bradford. He started the 2013 season with Single-A St. Lucie, where he had a 3.71 ERA in 30 relief appearances. Upon getting called up to Double-A, he was un-hittable, evident by his solid 0.71 ERA. At 24 years of age, the Mets could look to rush him to the big leagues by skipping Triple-A in 2014, and possibly making the team out of camp. 

Hansel Robles--- Single-A St. Lucie/3.72 ERA/16 appearances (15 starts)/84.2 innings pitched

Robles is more of a lower-tiered pitching prospect in the Mets' system, and he really needed to make a splash in the minors this year to catch up on developing. As a 23 year old who is still in Single-A, it is unknown whether he will remain or a starting pitcher, or start working out of the bullpen. I personally don't think that we will be seeing him in the Majors until around late-2015 or early 2016, and that is assuming he finds success in the minor leagues. 

Cody Satterwhite--- Single-A St. Lucie/2.78 ERA/16 appearances/22.2 innings pitched.

The Mets signed Satterwhite out of Independent ball earlier this year, and he did not disappoint. His 9.1 K/9 ratio showed promise that he could someday become an effective power reliever in this game. He is 26 years old, and still stuck in Single-A, but I can see him making a big leap in the system if he has a strong showing in the Fall league. 

Position Players

Cam Maron--- Single-A St. Lucie/.235/.327/.295/ 0 HR/ 84 games

Maron, like others in this article, was a late round draft choice, being selected by the Mets in the 34th round of the 2009 draft. He hit relatively well in the minors up until the 2013 season, but hasn't really showed any power to his bat. He is still only 22 years old, and the Mets are clearly being very careful with him. His 2013 season did not help his case at all, so he'll look to make a name for himself in the Fall league. However, regardless of success or not, he will still be blocked by several players in the organization, such as Travis d'Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki and others. That said, I don't see him having a future with this organization.

Aderlin Rodriguez --- Single-A St. Lucie/.260/.295/.427/ 9 HR/ 62 games.

Despite being slowly moved through the organization, Rodriguez is still highly regarded by scouts and the front office. He is still only 21, and had a decent 2013 season that will probably earn him a Double-A promotion in 2014. His biggest season came in 2012, where he hit 24 homers with 83 RBI in 125 minor league games. Primarily a third baseman, Rodriguez won't have a future with this organization since he is blocked by superstar David Wright on the depth chart, but he could be a nice trade chip this winter. 

Cory Vaughn--- Double-A Binghamton/.267/.346/.424/ 10 HR/ 71 games.

Vaughn has been a name to watch for years now, because of his nice combination of power and speed. 2013 finally marked the year where he made the leap to Double-A, and for the most part he did not disappoint. At 24 years old, he needs to make a big leap ASAP to be considered a long-term piece for the Mets. Hopefully he has a strong showing in the Fall league, and is considered for a roster spot in 2014. Due to the Mets' lack of outfield depth at this current moment, I'd expect him to get a good opportunity to make the team. 

Beltran may return to the Mets

Cardinals outfielder Carlos Beltran is a free agent this winter, and has not ruled out a possible return to the Mets, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. According to Puma, the Mets would consider bringing Beltran back, but they are concerned about his declining range in the outfield. 

Beltran was traded from the Mets to the Giants in July of 2011, a trade that gave the team pitcher Zack Wheeler. Before that season, Beltran chose to undergo an arthroscopic knee surgery that surprised many members of the front office, one being GM Omar Minaya and COO Jeff Wilpon. The decision created tension between the two sides, and despite the changing GM's in 2010-2011, the tension may still exist withh the ownership. 

Puma also added that Beltran and Wilpon had a chat during the All-Star game that probably patched up some old wounds.

The 36 year old outfielder hit .296 with 24 HR and 84 RBI for St. Louis in the 2013 season.

I've always been a huge Beltran supporter, and I know that Mets fans would gladly welcome him back with open arms. He was one of the more underrated players that the Mets have had in recent years, and his tenure really went unappreciated. At age 36, he still has a few years of solid baseball left before considers retirement.

I don't see his "declining range" as a valid excuse to not sign him. Lets hypothetically say that we have Juan Lagares in center field during the 2014 season. Lagares is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the National League, and the Mets will not need some sort of defensive specialist out in right field. My point is, Beltran is probably not a Gold Glover anymore, but he still provides decent enough defense to be considered for an outfield spot. Not to mention he still has his power stroke, which is something the Mets desperately need right now.

I don't know what kind of deal he'll demand, but this will likely be his last "big deal" of his career. That said, he'll probably want a multiyear deal with about $6-10 million annually. Assuming both parties are interested in reuniting, I'd be okay with the Mets giving him a deal along the lines of 2-3 years, $15-25 million. 

Harvey to undergo TJ surgery

Matt Harvey will officially undergo Tommy John surgery on the partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, Sandy Alderson announced on Friday. The surgery will knock him out for the entire 2014 season.

"There was a more reasoned approach to the injury," Alderson answered when asked why Harvey decided to have surgery instead of continuing the throwing program. He also said that Harvey had begun rehabbing, but not physically throwing.

Alderson and Harvey met on Friday to come up with a final conclusion.

"I felt this would be the right decision. So, in that sense, I'm happy that Matt has reached that same conclusion." Alderson said.

Alderson also mentioned that now two rotation spots are open, with Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler and Dillon Gee being the only locks in 2014. He said he would be a "little uncomfortable" with relying on his younger pitchers to fill those holes.

"It's a possibility," he said. "I don't think it's a scenario that we would prefer." 

Harvey is expected to be ready to throw again in February of 2015, as pitchers generally take a full calender year to completely recover from this procedure. Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery sometime later this month.

The 24 year old hurler posted a 2.27 ERA in 26 starts for the Mets this season. He also struck out 191 batters in 178.1 innings pitched.

This is clearly the smartest move for Harvey from a long-term standpoint. It makes sense to have him just miss the 2014 season, and not have to worry about re-tearing his elbow sometime in the future. The Mets will have to make moves to fill the void he is leaving, whether that is an in-house move or a free agent signing. 

Personally, I think if they plan on contending, they should sign someone like Bronson Arroyo. I know I've mentioned Arroyo as being a pricey and risky player, but if they can somehow get his asking price down to a reasonable number, then he'd be a solid innings eater for this team next season. Also, they could try to sign someone like Phil Hughes to an incentive-based deal. Granted, I am not the biggest Hughes fan, but his home/away splits are somewhat promising, and a change of scenery would certainly benefit him. Finally, there's Josh Johnson, who I've always been tough on. He is a free agent this winter, and the Blue Jays will probably not sign him back. Due to his potential and history of success, I would imagine a string of teams are going to chase after him. However, he could be a great buy low candidate for the Mets, because he is great when on the field.