Interesting stats from Juan Lagares

Juan Lagares' first big league season was an interesting one, as he set a franchise rookie record in outfield assists, and had a solid 3.5 dWAR, which ranked second behind Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez (4.6) among National League outfielders. He earned a spotlight on himself because of his incredible defense, defense so good that it actually out-shined his poor offense. Here is a look at his offensive numbers from the 2013 season:

	Games	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	BABIP	AVG
2013 (Triple-A Las Vegas)	17	82	3	13	9	2	4.9%	17.1%	.393	.346
2013 (New York Mets)	121	421	4	35	34	6	4.8%	22.8%	.310	.242

As you can see, he clearly spent most of the season with the varsity squad. The biggest number that jumps out to me is his walk percentage, which at 4.8% is way below the league average (which is about 8% percent.) At this point, most people know that Lagares needs to work on his pitch selection, as it is also increasing his strikeout rate, which at 22.8 % is not very solid (18-20 % being the league average.) 

Lagares also has a history of low walk ratio's, and high strikeout ratio's from the minors, which concerns me quite a bit. I understand many people have been thinking "as long as he plays solid defense, his bat won't matter as much." The only way I'd agree with that theory is if the Mets surrounded him with two solid hitting outfielders to compensate for his poor offense, which at this point seems unknown. 

Lagares' .320 BABIP does imply that he will get better in the near future, so there is that to look forward to. He'll likely start the 2014 season with the center-field job at his fingertips, so in essence it's his job to lose. The Mets should, however, monitor his bat closely, as it is clearly not the strongest aspect of his game. 

Need an outfielder? How about Aoki?

Earlier this year, the Mets and Rangers both contacted the Brewers about outfielder Norichika Aoki's availability, but were told that he was more likely to be traded this off-season. Right now, Milwaukee is shopping Aoki around with several teams to possibly bring in a left handed hitting first-baseman, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman pictures that if Aoki was brought to New York, he'd be a solid every-day leadoff hitter, which would move Eric Young Jr. into a "super-sub, late-game runner, double-switch piece."

Aoki, 31, hit .286 with a .356 on-base percentage and struck out at a solid 5.9 % clip in 2013. He will earn approximately $2 million in 2014, and will be a free agent in 2015. 

Sherman believes that the Mets should swap Ike Davis for Aoki, as Davis could be the first-baseman that Milwaukee is looking after. 

I've always like Aoki, as he's been one of the more consistent players to come from Japan. He has averaged 10 homers, 26 stolen bases, and a .287 batting average ever since he came to the MLB two years ago. If he was brought to the Mets, I would immediately slide him into the leadoff spot, and push Eric Young Jr. to the bench. The only problem with Aoki is his lack of power, and it seems like the Mets are looking for one, if not two power bats this winter. 

The Brewers would probably love to have Ike Davis as a reclamation project, but I have a feeling that Sandy Alderson will wait until the Winter Meetings to fully determine Davis' market. As a former first round pick, and a player who hit over 30 homers not too long ago, the Mets shouldn't just HAND Davis away to any team that wants him. 

MLBTR's Mets free agent predictions

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors recently predicted that the Mets will sign Curtis Granderson, Stephen Drew, Bronson Arroyo, and Roy Halladay to free agent deals this off-season. Here is the link to his predictions list. 

I truly feel like the Mets are going to take the "Red Sox approach" to free agency this winter and sign several players to multiyear deals, hoping that they will find a spark in them. The four players that Dierkes mentioned aren't superstars by any means, but still major upgrades over who the Mets currently have on their team.

I haven't always been the biggest Granderson fan, as I feel like most of his home runs are given to him because of the hitter-friendly dimensions at Yankee stadium. Despite the injury-riddled 2013 season, he played very well with the Yankees during his four year tenure. The 32 year old outfielder hit 115 homers, had 307 RBI, and put up a combined .245 batting average in a total of 513 games. The batting average and the strikeouts are what scare me the most about Granderson, and now that he is tied to draft pick compensation that may push the Mets even further away from him. If they can get him at a decent price, I would consider it. However, if he can only be had by getting overpaid, then I would chase after other players. 

Stephen Drew's name has been closely connected with the Mets for the last few months, and he is also tied to draft pick compensation. During the 2013 season, he hit .253 with 13 homers and 67 RBI in 124 games with Boston. His defense has always been pretty solid, but his post-season performance might have decreased his free agent value. It is expected that he'll be getting a multiyear deal, something in the 3-4 year, $35-45 million price range. I personally would rather have Johnny Peralta over Stephen Drew, because I feel like that is overpaying Drew, plus he is a bigger health risk. 

Next we have Bronson Arroyo, who has been one of the most durable pitchers in the game over the past decade or so. He had a 3.79 ERA in 202.0 innings pitched (32 starts) for the Reds in 2013. The 36 year old has thrown 200.0 innings or more in 8 of the last 9 seasons. He has also stated that he would "strongly consider" coming to the Mets. Despite the age, he is still expected to get a multiyear deal his winter, and the Reds are unlikely to bring him back. 

Roy Halladay is name that I would probably shy away from, but I get what Dierkes is saying here. He basically wants the Mets to find a low-risk gamble for a starting pitcher, and hope that he turns his career around in 2014. That could be Roy Halladay, or even Josh Johnson for all we know, but the Mets do need more rotation depth. I would just stay away from Halladay because it seems like his career is over, as he has digressed quite quickly.

Detroit does not give Peralta a QO

Free agency has officially started, and the Tigers did not give shortstop Johnny Peralta a qualifying offer, which means he will not be tied to draft pick compensation if signed by an opposing team. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski also told reporters that they are unlikely to re-sign him this winter, due to the emergence of shortstop Jose Iglesias. 

After the Tigers lost to the Red Sox in the ALCS, Peralta publicly stated that he would like to remain to Detroit. In 2013, the 31 old year old hit .303 with a .358 on-base percentage and 11 home runs in 448 plate appearances. He went on to serve a 50 game suspension due to a PED violation. 

Peralta, an 11 year veteran, has 156 homers, 698 RBI, and a combined .268 batting average in 1383 career games with Cleveland and Detroit. The two time All-Star made $6 million in 2013, and despite the PED suspension, is expected to earn a slight pay raise this winter.

Sandy Alderson should be all over Peralta right now. He paid his price with the 50 game PED suspension, and I expect that it will never happen again. Peralta has a history of success so you know that 2013 wasn't a fluke by any means. He would obviously demand a multiyear deal, and my guess would be something in the 3 year/$30-35 million range, which is reasonable. At the price, the Mets should snag him and stick Ruben Tejada in Triple-A. 

Mets officially decline Santana's option

The Mets have officially declined Johan Santana's $25 million option for the 2014 season. The veteran will instead give Santana a $5.5 million buyout. 

Santana was originally acquired by the Mets via trade from the Twins in February 2008. He went on to sign a 6 year, $137.5 million contract extension to stay in Queens, and had trouble staying healthy. In 109 career starts with the Mets, he had a 3.18 ERA and a 46-34 record. The Mets were expected to give him a buyout this winter.

Santana issued the following statement after this move was announced " I want to thank the Mets organization, my teammates and of course a big thank you to the Mets fans, who have been behind me from day one and stood by me through all the good and bad. I am not sure what the future holds, as this is all new to me, but I have every intention of pitching in 2014 and beyond and I am certainly keeping all my options open. BELIEVE IT." 

According to Andy Martino of of the Daily News, the Mets won't rule out bringing Santana back, but they would have relatively low expectations for him, similar to the expectations they had when they brought in Shaun Marcum and Chris Young.

Santana was clearly a bust for the Mets during his 6 year tenure, simply because he couldn't stay on the field. Realistically speaking, he only gave New York three good seasons out of those 6 years (2008-2010,) and the 2012 season (despite the no-hitter) was a flop as well. 

Santana for the most part was solid when healthy, but a torn shoulder capsule injury kept him out for part of the 2011 season, and all of 2012. It is assumed the recovery itself affected Santana in 2012, as he went on to post a 4.85 ERA in 21 starts. His most recent shoulder surgery kept him out for the entire 2013 season. 

I am not sure whether the Mets plan on bringing him back, either as a starter or reliever. However, I personally think he would be a decent low risk pickup. He has shown that he can handle the New York media, and the spotlight that playing in Queens can give a player. He also obviously has a history of success, and the Mets could ease him back by sticking him in the bullpen to lighten the workload. It's something to be considered by both sides, but I would imagine a bunch of teams will be contacting Santana about a possible contract. 

Angels will make Trumbo and Bourjos available

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Angels are willing to trade Mark Trumbo and/or Peter Bourjos to acquire young pitching. Last month, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com said that the Angels would consider trading Howie Kendrick, but it was less likely that Trumbo or Bourjos would be dealt because they are under team control for more years.

Trumbo, 27, hit .234 with 34 home runs and 100 RBI in 159 games for the Angels last season. He will be eligible for arbitration in 2014, and can become a free agent in 2017. 

Bourjos, 26, hit .274 with a .333 OBP in 55 games for the Angels in 2013. Like Trumbo, he will be eligible for arbitration in 2014, and can become a free agent in 2017. 

I like both of these players, and I can definitely see a fit here. Obviously the Mets have young pitching as their surplus, so they could be an attractive suitor for the Angels. Now, neither Trumbo or Bourjos are "top-tiered" players by any means, but they would definitely be upgrades over whoever the team stuck in the outfield last year.

Trumbo's problem is his inability to work the count, as he just goes up there hacking and hoping that the ball goes a long way. His power would be much needed in the Mets lineup, but he isn't one of those players where you would overpay to get him. He is also limited to first base, as the whole outfield experiment in Los Angeles made him Lucas Duda-esqe defensively. 

As for Bourjos, I used to be a huge fan of him, mostly after the 2011 season where he managed to hit 11 triples in 147 games for the Halos. However, I really feel like this speedster is no more than a fourth outfielder due to his light bat. Defensively hes golden, but he's yet another player that I don't see the Mets making a huge push to acquire.

What I want to see the Mets do this off-season.

The World Series isn't even over yet, and people are already beginning to talk about how the Mets can have a successful off-season. They clearly have many needs, as first base, shortstop, and the corner outfield spots were liabilities last year. If the Mets want to re-tool and become competitive in 2014, they are going to need to start spending, and making creative trades. Here is what I think they should do.

Trade Montero, Murphy, Davis, and Gee for Tulowitzki and cash.

Colorado isn't going to just GIVE AWAY Tulowitzki, so he'll likely cost quite a bit in terms of prospects. What the 29 year old shortstop brings to the table to very obvious -- power, solid defense, and a solid presence in the lineup. He is arguably the best shortstop in the game right now, so the Mets would be getting quite a catch. 

The Rockies need pitching, so give them Rafael Montero who will be major-league ready in 2014 and projects to be a #2 or #3 starter. Also give them Dillon Gee, who proved with his 3.62 ERA in 2013 that he could be a solid starting pitcher at the back end of the rotation. Gee is arbitration eligible after the 2014 season, and is eligible for free agency in 2017. 

Also in this deal is Daniel Murphy, who the Mets probably wouldn't be thrilled to give up, but a piece like him would be required to net a player like Tulowitzki. Murphy has really come into his own over the last few seasons, and is starting to look like an every-day regular over at second base. After his strong 2013 season where he hit .286 with 188 hits in 161 games, his value is high, and the Rockies could look to immediately extend him if acquired because he only has a few years left of team control on his current deal.

Finally we have Ike Davis, who the Mets are going to probably tender a contract to this winter. Davis was horrific in 2013, hitting .205 with 9 home runs in 103 games. Davis has shown that he has a massive amount of raw power, and could thrive under the hitter-friendly dimensions of Coors Field. One thing we know for sure is: Todd Helton is retiring, and the Rockies are going to be looking for a young first-baseman.

Sign Nelson Cruz

The Rangers are likely going to let Cruz walk this winter as they acquired Alex Rios from the White Sox to replace him. Cruz is coming off a season where he hit 27 home runs in 109 games, and finished the campaign with a 50 game PED suspension. He would be a great player to bring in due to his immense power, and solid arm in the outfield. However, if he is asking for too much, the Mets could back away with no harm. 

If Cruz doesn't work out, Sign Marlon Byrd

I'm not sure if I completely buy into the whole Marlon Byrd situation, but the guy has done it in the New York spotlight, and I expect that he'd be a solid addition to this club. After his strong 2013 season where he hit .291 with 24 homers and 88 RBI, the 36 year old veteran could be in line for a multiyear deal, which is something the Mets may not want to hand out. 

Sign Jacoby Ellsbury

I'm gonna say it: I'd rather have Ellsbury than Shin-Shoo Choo. I love the fact that Ellsbury can steal 50-60 bases, and he is exactly what the Mets are looking for. The Red Sox may not want to give him up too easily, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting a contract over $100 million due to all of the bidding teams who will be chasing after him. I can see Seattle making a big push for him, but the Mets could play the role as that sleeper team, and I would be thrilled if they got him. I'm wary of the injury history, but I feel like it's a risk that the team needs to take. 

Here is what I want the team to look like next year: (excluding bench players and the bullpen)

Lineup:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury

2. 2B Wilmer Flores

3. 3B David Wright

4. SS Troy Tulowitzki

5. RF Nelson Cruz/Marlon Byrd

6. 1B Lucas Duda

7. C Travis d'Arnaud

8. LF Juan Lagares

9. Pitcher

Starting Rotation:

1. Zack Wheeler

2. Jonathon Niese

3. Jenrry Mejia

4. *Veteran Free Agent*

5. *Veteran Free Agent*