Market for Ike Davis

The Mets have a logjam at first-base that includes Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Josh Satin, and Wilmer Flores. They clearly need to make a trade or two this winter to clear up some space on the roster, and also get rid of some unwanted pieces. Davis and Duda seem to be the most logical players to be dealt, as they haven't lived up to expectations at all. Several reports have indicated that the Mets are getting more calls on Davis than Duda. It is unknown which teams are calling, but here are who I believe would be the best fits to swing a deal with. 

Cleveland Indians:  2013 First-Baseman: Nick Swisher

The Indians have needed a first baseman for years now, as once-hyped up prospect Matt LaPorta has turned out to be a huge flop. They had Nick Swisher playing first last season, which is his natural position. Swisher isn't going anywhere, but he could be moved to the DH role so the Indians could bring in a first-baseman. The Indians could deal away some of their young pitching to get Davis.

Colorado Rockies: 2013 First-Baseman: Todd Helton

The Rockies have many big decisions to make this winter. They'll likely hold onto their main pieces such as Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, but Michael Cuddyer's status is up in the air. There is talk that he may move from right field to first base next season, now that long-time first baseman Todd Helton has retired. The Mets may also inquire on Cuddyer, so there actually is a possibility that he ends up in Queens and Davis ends up in Colorado. I can see Colorado as a big time bidder for Ike, and it'll be interesting to see how their offseason plays out.

Milwaukee Brewers: 2013 First-Baseman: Juan Francisco

It is unknown whether the Brewers are willing to bring back long-time first baseman/right fielder Corey Hart, but assuming they don't they'll have a huge hole to fill. Juan Francisco is a decent player because of his raw power, but the Brewers would be better off if they gambled on Davis. I expect them to certainly be in the market for Davis if Hart does not return to Milwaukee.

Tampa Bay Rays:  2013 First-Baseman: James Loney

Loney is likely going to leave via free agency, and the Rays will be searching for another inexpensive option that they could roll the dice on. Davis would be perfect for Tampa Bay, as the New York media has seemed to get in his head. Going to a low-key team like the Rays could be exactly what he's looking for, and luckily for the Mets, Tampa Bay has a few prospects that they could dangle in front of the Mets and see if they bite. I truly expect Davis to be traded to the Rays sometime this winter.

Toronto Blue Jays: 2013 First-Baseman: Edwin Encarnacion

I'm going to stick to my word and predict that the Jays are going to trade one of their top hitters this off-season. Whether that is Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, or even a smaller name like Adam Lind remains to be seen, but if Encarnacion or Lind are dealt, Toronto could bring in someone like Davis, who would give them cheap power, and can be had for a decent price. The Blue Jays would likely just have to cough up a bullpen piece or a low-grade outfield prospect to get Davis. 

Mets have shown interest in Hughes

According to Andy Martino of the Daily News, the Mets have shown interest in free agent pitcher Phil Hughes. Hughes, 27, went 4-14 with a 5.19 ERA for the Yankees in 2013 while earning $7,150,000. 

In his career, the former first round pick is 56-50 with a combined 4.54 ERA in 780.2 innings pitched. He is generally known for being more effective on the road, as he has a 4.96 ERA at home, and a slightly better 4.10 ERA when away from Yankee stadium. 

The Mets should stay away from Hughes, despite the potential. Hughes is known as one of the more inconsistent pitchers in today's game, and while the hitter-friendly dimensions of Yankee stadium may have diminished his worth, he is still a below average player when on the road. His 4.36 FIP in 2013 did indeed show that he may have gotten unlucky, but over the course of his career his ERA and FIP have been relatively similar. 

I've heard Hughes' name being connected with Pittsburgh for quite some time now, so I expect them to pursue him. I don't think the Yankees want him back, as he clearly can't handle the pressure of New York. To me he's just a Mike Pelfrey Part 2, and shouldn't be even considered by the Mets.

If the Mets are looking for pitching, go after bigger targets. I would rather overpay for Josh Johnson than bring in Phil Hughes on an incentive based deal. Hughes may find success if he winds up in the National League, but the Mets shouldn't be the team taking that flier on him. 

Trade proposal: Edwin Encarnacion

The last time the Mets and Blue Jays made a trade together, the Mets ended up getting a steal. They basically robbed Noah Syndergaard, Travis d'Arnaud from Toronto, as all they had to give up was R.A. Dickey, and two fringe players in Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. This winter, the two teams may swing another deal or two. The Blue Jays have hitting, and quite a bit of it. The problem is their pitching is lacking, as it always has. They'll certainly be searching for some rotation help this off-season, and the Mets are dangling their young pitching to bring in a solid hitter or two. That said, the Mets should consider Edwin Encarnacion, the 30 year old first baseman who has hit 116 homers in his last four seasons with Toronto. 

Mets Get:

1B Edwin Encarnacion 

Blue Jays Get:

P Dillon Gee

P Jacob deGrom

Encarnacion has been a name to watch for years now, and this is the year that he may finally be available for a reasonable price. The 2013 All-Star had his first true breakout season in 2012, where he slugged 42 home runs while hitting .280 in 151 games. His solid season earned him a contract extension, a deal that will keep him under team control through the 2015 season at a reasonable price of $10 million annually. Encarnacion also appeals to the Mets because of his solid on-base percentage. His .370 OBP was well above average, and his career .348 OBP is quite a feat as well. The knack on most players who have high on-base percentages is that they strikeout quite a bit as well (ex: Adam Dunn), but with Encarnacion, his 62 strikeouts in 621 plate appearances (10% of the time) is well below-league average. He doesn't strike out much, walks quite a bit, has some pop to his bat, and is under team control through the 2015 season (team option for 2016) at a fair price, so what's not to like?

Obviously to get a player of Encarnacion's caliber, the Mets would have to sacrifice some of their prized pitching. Despite Harvey being out for the 2014 season, the Mets are still shopping some of their pitchers because of their desperation to bring in a true hitter to protect David Wright in the lineup. Dillon Gee is coming off the best season of his career so far, where he posted a 3.62 ERA in 32 starts while tossing 199.0 innings. The 27 year old hurler is under team control through the 2017 season, and is expected to earn a modest salary increase next season. As for deGrom, the hard throwing sinker-baller pitcher, he would give the Blue Jays more pitching depth. deGrom isn't really considered a top prospect by any means, mostly because of his age (25), but it is believed that he is big-league ready, and his minor league numbers have shown improvement over the years.

The Mets and Blue Jays could/should line up on a few trades this off-season, and I would expect Sandy Alderson to ask about Edwin Encarnacion's availability. The slugger has so many things to like about him, and for a team that is looking for some power, Encarnacion would be a great option. 

Mets sign Seratelli and Carreno

The Mets have signed utility player Anthony Seratelli and pitcher Joel Carreno to minor league contracts. 

Seratelli hit .273 with a .395 OBP in 120 Triple-A games in the Royals organization last season. The 30 year old had spent his entire minor league career in the Royals organization, hitting a combined .276 with 67 homers across 8 seasons. He spent most of the 2013 season as a right-fielder, but also has experience in the infield.

Carreno had a 2.43 ERA in 50 relief appearances for the Blue Jays' Double-A and Triple-A clubs. He also posted a combined 12.2 K/9 ratio in 66.2 innings pitched. The former starting pitcher spent his 8 seasons in Toronto's organization up until this point. 

Both players have been invited to Major League Spring Training. 

I actually think that these two signings are very under-the-radar pickups by Alderson. Seratelli is like a "super-utility player" who has a history of putting up an above average on-base percentage, and may even give Justin Turner a run for his money. He will definitely compete for a bench spot on next year's squad.

I'm a little confused as to why Carreno was a free agent, as his stats are very impressive. He fizzled out as a starter, but his numbers over the last few seasons have been sparkling. His strikeout ratio is what demands the most attention. I truly feel like he could be just another power-arm in the Mets bullpen next season if he impresses in camp.

Good job Sandy, now go get us some proven talent. 

Interesting stats from Juan Lagares

Juan Lagares' first big league season was an interesting one, as he set a franchise rookie record in outfield assists, and had a solid 3.5 dWAR, which ranked second behind Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez (4.6) among National League outfielders. He earned a spotlight on himself because of his incredible defense, defense so good that it actually out-shined his poor offense. Here is a look at his offensive numbers from the 2013 season:

	Games	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	BABIP	AVG
2013 (Triple-A Las Vegas)	17	82	3	13	9	2	4.9%	17.1%	.393	.346
2013 (New York Mets)	121	421	4	35	34	6	4.8%	22.8%	.310	.242

As you can see, he clearly spent most of the season with the varsity squad. The biggest number that jumps out to me is his walk percentage, which at 4.8% is way below the league average (which is about 8% percent.) At this point, most people know that Lagares needs to work on his pitch selection, as it is also increasing his strikeout rate, which at 22.8 % is not very solid (18-20 % being the league average.) 

Lagares also has a history of low walk ratio's, and high strikeout ratio's from the minors, which concerns me quite a bit. I understand many people have been thinking "as long as he plays solid defense, his bat won't matter as much." The only way I'd agree with that theory is if the Mets surrounded him with two solid hitting outfielders to compensate for his poor offense, which at this point seems unknown. 

Lagares' .320 BABIP does imply that he will get better in the near future, so there is that to look forward to. He'll likely start the 2014 season with the center-field job at his fingertips, so in essence it's his job to lose. The Mets should, however, monitor his bat closely, as it is clearly not the strongest aspect of his game. 

Need an outfielder? How about Aoki?

Earlier this year, the Mets and Rangers both contacted the Brewers about outfielder Norichika Aoki's availability, but were told that he was more likely to be traded this off-season. Right now, Milwaukee is shopping Aoki around with several teams to possibly bring in a left handed hitting first-baseman, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman pictures that if Aoki was brought to New York, he'd be a solid every-day leadoff hitter, which would move Eric Young Jr. into a "super-sub, late-game runner, double-switch piece."

Aoki, 31, hit .286 with a .356 on-base percentage and struck out at a solid 5.9 % clip in 2013. He will earn approximately $2 million in 2014, and will be a free agent in 2015. 

Sherman believes that the Mets should swap Ike Davis for Aoki, as Davis could be the first-baseman that Milwaukee is looking after. 

I've always like Aoki, as he's been one of the more consistent players to come from Japan. He has averaged 10 homers, 26 stolen bases, and a .287 batting average ever since he came to the MLB two years ago. If he was brought to the Mets, I would immediately slide him into the leadoff spot, and push Eric Young Jr. to the bench. The only problem with Aoki is his lack of power, and it seems like the Mets are looking for one, if not two power bats this winter. 

The Brewers would probably love to have Ike Davis as a reclamation project, but I have a feeling that Sandy Alderson will wait until the Winter Meetings to fully determine Davis' market. As a former first round pick, and a player who hit over 30 homers not too long ago, the Mets shouldn't just HAND Davis away to any team that wants him. 

MLBTR's Mets free agent predictions

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors recently predicted that the Mets will sign Curtis Granderson, Stephen Drew, Bronson Arroyo, and Roy Halladay to free agent deals this off-season. Here is the link to his predictions list. 

I truly feel like the Mets are going to take the "Red Sox approach" to free agency this winter and sign several players to multiyear deals, hoping that they will find a spark in them. The four players that Dierkes mentioned aren't superstars by any means, but still major upgrades over who the Mets currently have on their team.

I haven't always been the biggest Granderson fan, as I feel like most of his home runs are given to him because of the hitter-friendly dimensions at Yankee stadium. Despite the injury-riddled 2013 season, he played very well with the Yankees during his four year tenure. The 32 year old outfielder hit 115 homers, had 307 RBI, and put up a combined .245 batting average in a total of 513 games. The batting average and the strikeouts are what scare me the most about Granderson, and now that he is tied to draft pick compensation that may push the Mets even further away from him. If they can get him at a decent price, I would consider it. However, if he can only be had by getting overpaid, then I would chase after other players. 

Stephen Drew's name has been closely connected with the Mets for the last few months, and he is also tied to draft pick compensation. During the 2013 season, he hit .253 with 13 homers and 67 RBI in 124 games with Boston. His defense has always been pretty solid, but his post-season performance might have decreased his free agent value. It is expected that he'll be getting a multiyear deal, something in the 3-4 year, $35-45 million price range. I personally would rather have Johnny Peralta over Stephen Drew, because I feel like that is overpaying Drew, plus he is a bigger health risk. 

Next we have Bronson Arroyo, who has been one of the most durable pitchers in the game over the past decade or so. He had a 3.79 ERA in 202.0 innings pitched (32 starts) for the Reds in 2013. The 36 year old has thrown 200.0 innings or more in 8 of the last 9 seasons. He has also stated that he would "strongly consider" coming to the Mets. Despite the age, he is still expected to get a multiyear deal his winter, and the Reds are unlikely to bring him back. 

Roy Halladay is name that I would probably shy away from, but I get what Dierkes is saying here. He basically wants the Mets to find a low-risk gamble for a starting pitcher, and hope that he turns his career around in 2014. That could be Roy Halladay, or even Josh Johnson for all we know, but the Mets do need more rotation depth. I would just stay away from Halladay because it seems like his career is over, as he has digressed quite quickly.