Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Reaction to Block-buster trade between Marlins-Blue Jays

The Marlins and Blue Jays agreed to a huge blockbuster trade last night that will send Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto in exchange for Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Justin Nicolino, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis and Anthony DeSclafani. Miami will also send $4 million to Toronto. This move comes one year after the Marlins spent big money to keep their team relevant in 2012, but that did not happen. 

You know I realize that this is a blog based on the Mets, but this is actually a huge deal for them, even though they are not directly involved. Obviously the Marlins are looking like they are going to be a 100+ loss club next season, so that should generate into a few "easier" wins for the Mets. Yet again the Mets, like most teams, are very unpredictable, so perhaps it is too early to make that assumption. 
Anyway I'll give my analysis for both sides, even though the clear cut winner is Toronto.

Reaction from a Blue Jays perspective

The Blue Jays finally get the pitching that they have been searching for. Josh Johnson may have a tough time pitching in the AL East, and staying healthy for that matter, but is a great player to buy low on. Mark Buerhle is a consistent #4 starter who can eat up innings and provide rotation depth. Reyes is a clear upgrade over Escobar, and he should/will be leading off games for Toronto for a long, long time. Remember these guys, notably Reyes and Buerhle, are under contract for a long time, so this is a huge financial commitment for Toronto. Also, Buck will probably not get much playing time since J.P. Arencibia and Travis D'Arnuad are likely going to be ahead of him on the depth chart. Perhaps this means that Buck, or even someone else could get traded. If I were Sandy Alderson I would definitely inquire. Finally, Bonifacio is an interesting pickup because he is sort of a super-utility guy with above-average speed. If he gets the everyday left field job with Toronto, expect him to put up very impressive numbers.

Reaction from the Marlins perspective

It is going to be a long rebuild for Miami, considering that they really don't have anyone good on the team right now, with the exception to Giancarlo Stanton. If I had to pick a positive thing from this trade from Miami's perspective, it is that they now have quite a bit of payroll flexibility  but after last year's debacle, I don't know how willing they will be to spend it. Escobar is a decent option at shortstop, but I think he'll ultimately be flipped to a team like Oakland. Hechavarria is a nice infield prospect to have, and should have a future with the team. Alvarez had a nice rookie season and I thought he was going to be something special, however, he had a rough 2012 season and really showed his weak areas. He has the ability to be a good starter, and we'll see if he develops with the Marlins. Nicolino had a very strong season in Single-A, but is still a few years away from the majors. Marisnick is a good outfield prospect with power and speed. He was rated #67 on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list before the 2012 season started. Mathis is a good defensive catcher, and cannot hit at all. He will probably platoon with young backstop Rob Brantly, who is most likely going to be the team's catcher of the future. Anthony DeSclafani had a very nice season in Single-A, posting a 3.37 ERA in 28 games, 21 of which were starts. 



In conclusion, expect the Marlins to be VERY, VERY bad next season. I'm sorry Marlins fans, but it is true. I actually feel sorry for Mike Redmond, who was recently hired to be the team's manager. He has one heck of a job ahead of him, and it would be absurd to blame him if/when the team struggles.

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