Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Trade Proposal: Justin Upton - Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have made it very clear that they are interested in trading their star outfielder Justin Upton this winter, if the price is right. With that being said I believe that the Mets will be heavily involved in his sweepstakes, considering that he could be a major building block as the club rebuild their entire outfield. Upton is 25 years old, and is under a team friendly deal, so it definitely makes sense to pursue him.

I would imagine that several top notch prospects, or major league ready players, would be required in a package to pry Upton out of Arizona. Now that Lucas Duda's trade value has got down the toilet (due to the wrist surgery that was announced earlier today), the Mets will have to find other trade chips to use. Let's just think about what the Diamondbacks would want in such a trade. They have several young arms that will crack the rotation in 2013, so pitching, for the most part, will not be their priority. I would imagine that they will looking for a second baseman (Kelly Johnson is likely to leave via free agency), a shortstop (Stephen Drew is a free agent), and a third baseman (uncertainty with Ryan Wheeler.) They have a nice amount of outfield depth, so perhaps Duda would not appeal to them even if he was healthy. I can see a potential trade like this making sense: 

Mets get:

RF Justin Upton
Cash considerations ($2-3 million)

Diamondbacks get:

SP Jon Niese
SS/3B Wilmer Flores
3B Zack Lutz
2B Daniel Murphy
SP Cory Mazzoni


Sandy Alderson has publicly stated that he would like to keep his young core of players intact, meaning that he would probably not be prone to such a move. However, some of the players, most notably the prospects, are blocked on the depth chart by player's who are likely not going anywhere. Flores and Lutz are two prospects that I have heard quite a bit about, and I expect them to greatly interest Arizona's GM Kevin Towers. Flores is a toolsy infielder whose value is very high right now since he is coming off a strong season (and having a nice winter ball season.) He was originally a shortstop, but the club has shifted him over to the third base position, I'm assuming to make him a backup plan if Wright leaves via free agency or trade. Lutz is a guy who isn't necessarily a top prospect due to his age (26 years old.) However he is still a useful player to have, and good depth over at the hot corner. Who knows? He may turn into something special. He never really got a chance to play for the Mets, since he is blocked by David Wright on the depth chart. As for Murphy, he obviously isn't a prospect anymore, but could serve as a stop-gap second baseman until Arizona finds a younger second baseman. He isn't a bad player, but his defense is sometimes questioned. The guy is a natural hitter, and would thrive in Arizona. Niese obviously would be a tough loss, and a risky one. I have a feeling that he will be traded only if the front office feels like the duo of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are the real deal. He would appeal to Arizona because he is young, is under a team-friendly deal, and has the potential to be a solid #2 or #3 starter. Mazzoni would pretty much be a throw-in so the club can acquire some cash. Mazzoni is sort of a lower-tiered pitching prospect, similar to Brad Holt, and will probably not be anything more than a #4 or #5 pitcher if lucky. He wouldn't be a major loss, and the Mets could certainly use that money to upgrade other positions.

Obviously losing some of those players would be risky, considering that it would jeopardize a part of the club's future. But, let's think for a second here. The Mets would be getting Justin Upton, whose talent hasn't really been specified in this article. The guy is a two time All-Star, who is a threat to go deep and on the base-paths. He has a great throwing arm, and would probably thrive in New York. If Sandy Alderson can acquire him, it would tell us fans that he is not willing to rebuild for 5-6 years, rather retool and go get em in 2014 (when Bay and Santana's contracts are off the books.) 

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